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2013-12-06

What do investors and college football pollsters have in common?

In a study of more than 20 years of college football polls, an economist at The Ohio State University and his colleagues found that poll voters reward teams that perform just how the voters expected they would.

"As a college football team, if you just meet expectations, you are rewarded by the poll voters. If you are expected to win in a blowout, the voters think you ought to win in a blowout," said Trevon Logan, an associate professor of economics at Ohio State.

The research found that poll voters don't take into account strength of schedule or margin of victory when deciding which college football teams are the best.

What is important is winning and meeting expectations, which in college football games means beating teams by the expected margin, Logan said. But going over that margin is not especially helpful.

This year, Florida State University climbed from #11 in the preseason Associated Press poll to #1 this past week. They did it by going undefeated and beating outmatched teams handily, as they were expected to do.

Ohio State, on the other hand, has suffered in the polls some because it has not met expectations, with some closer-than-expected victories on the way to an unbeaten season.

"But why is Florida State climbing in the polls when they are doing exactly what you expected them to do? In some ways, it doesn't make sense," Logan said.

The tendency of pollsters to reward teams that meet their expectations is an example of a cognitive bias called confirmatory bias.

"Confirmatory bias is the tendency of people to accept weak evidence if it affirms beliefs they already hold," Logan said.

Logan said Wall Street investors show the same type of bias. When analysts expect a company's profits to increase 3 percent in a quarter, and the company meets that target, it is often rewarded with higher stock prices. But if that company increases profits for the quarter -- but only by 2 percent -- stock prices may fall.

"The company may have increased profits, but that doesn't matter if analysts expected more than the company delivered," he said. "That's an example of how confirmatory bias can work against a company."

Logan said his research shows that college football poll voters, despite their expertise, are subject to the same cognitive biases as the rest of us.

"No matter how much they know or how much they learn, human voters will always be subject to human biases," he said.

Logan conducted the study with Rodney Andrews of the University of Texas at Dallas and Michael Sinkey at the University of West Georgia. Their results were published as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper.

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Geoengineering approaches to reduce climate change unlikely to succeed

The results are now published in Earth System Dynamics, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

Global warming alters Earth's water cycle since more water evaporates to the air as temperatures increase. Increased evaporation can dry out some regions while, at the same time, result in more rain falling in other areas due to the excess moisture in the atmosphere. The more water evaporates per degree of warming, the stronger the influence of increasing temperature on the water cycle. But the new study shows the water cycle does not react the same way to different types of warming.

Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, used a simple energy balance model to determine how sensitive the water cycle is to an increase in surface temperature due to a stronger greenhouse effect and to an increase in solar radiation. They predicted the response of the water cycle for the two cases and found that, in the former, evaporation increases by 2% per degree of warming while in the latter this number reaches 3%. This prediction confirmed results of much more complex climate models.

"These different responses to surface heating are easy to explain," says Kleidon, who uses a pot on the kitchen stove as an analogy. "The temperature in the pot is increased by putting on a lid or by turning up the heat -- but these two cases differ by how much energy flows through the pot," he says. A stronger greenhouse effect puts a thicker 'lid' over Earth's surface but, if there is no additional sunlight (if we don't turn up the heat on the stove), extra evaporation takes place solely due to the increase in temperature. Turning up the heat by increasing solar radiation, on the other hand, enhances the energy flow through Earth's surface because of the need to balance the greater energy input with stronger cooling fluxes from the surface. As a result, there is more evaporation and a stronger effect on the water cycle.

In the new Earth System Dynamics study the authors also show how these findings can have profound consequences for geoengineering. Many geoengineering approaches aim to reduce global warming by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface (or, in the pot analogy, reduce the heat from the stove). But when Kleidon and Renner applied their results to such a geoengineering scenario, they found out that simultaneous changes in the water cycle and the atmosphere cannot be compensated for at the same time. Therefore, reflecting sunlight by geoengineering is unlikely to restore the planet's original climate.

"It's like putting a lid on the pot and turning down the heat at the same time," explains Kleidon. "While in the kitchen you can reduce your energy bill by doing so, in the Earth system this slows down the water cycle with wide-ranging potential consequences," he says.

Kleidon and Renner's insight comes from looking at the processes that heat and cool Earth's surface and how they change when the surface warms. Evaporation from the surface plays a key role, but the researchers also took into account how the evaporated water is transported into the atmosphere. They combined simple energy balance considerations with a physical assumption for the way water vapour is transported, and separated the contributions of surface heating from solar radiation and from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to obtain the two sensitivities. One of the referees for the paper commented: "it is a stunning result that such a simple analysis yields the same results as the climate models."

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Soft mini-robots: Micro-robots will become soft and move like biological organisms, experts predict

Dec. 5, 2013 — Increasingly small robots can carry out their functions even inside the human body. No, this isn't a sci-fi dream. The technology is almost ready. However there is still one condition they must meet to be effective: these devices need to have the same "softness" and flexibility as biological tissues.

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This is the opinion of scientists like Antonio De Simone, from SISSA (the International School for Advanced Studies of Trieste) and Marino Arroyo from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia, who have just published a paper in the Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids. Taking inspiration from unicellular water micro-organisms, they studied the locomotion mechanisms of "soft robots."

Forget cogwheels, pistons and levers: miniaturized robots of the future will be "soft."

"If I think of the robots of tomorrow, what comes to mind are the tentacles of an octopus or the trunk of an elephant rather than the mechanical arm of a crane or the inner workings of a watch. And if I think of micro-robots then I think of unicellular organisms moving in water. The robots of the future will be increasingly like biological organisms" explains Antonio De Simone.

De Simone and his team at SISSA have been studying the movement of euglenids, unicellular aquatic animals, for several years. One of the aims of De Simone's research -- which has recently been awarded a European Research Council Advanced Grant of 1,300,000 euro -- is to transfer the knowledge acquired in euglenids to micro-robotics, a field that represents a promising challenge for the future. Micro-robots may in fact carry out a number of important functions, for example for human health, by delivering drugs directly to where they are needed, re-opening occluded blood vessels, or helping to close wounds, to name just a few.

To do this, these tiny robots will have to be able to move around efficiently. "Imagine trying to miniaturize a device made up of levers and cogwheels: you can't go below a certain minimal size. Instead, by mimicking biological systems we can go all the way down to cell size, and this is exactly the direction research is taking. We, in particular, are working on movement and studying how certain unicellular organisms with highly efficient locomotion move."

In their study, De Simone and Arroyo simulated euglenid species with different shapes and locomotion methods, based chiefly on cell body deformation and swelling, to describe in detail the mechanics and characteristics of the movement obtained.

"Our work not only helps to understand the movement mechanism of these unicellular organisms, but it provides a knowledge base to plan the locomotion system of future micro-robots."

De Simone and Arroyo's paper has been selected to appear in the special issue of the J. Mech. Phys. Solids.

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2013-12-05

Discretes Tiny p-mosfet switches loads in phones

2013/12/05

11dec13Vishay Si8851 p-mosfet 500 Vishay has released a -20V p-channel mosfet in a 2.4×2.0mm package, claiming it to be the first.

Only 0.4mm tall, Si8851EDB has an on resistance of 8.0mΩ with -4.5V on the gate, or 11.0mΩ at -2.5V.

The chip-scale ‘package’ has 30 balls in its array and “provides the lowest on-resistance possible for a given outline area”, claimed Vishay, saying that such a resistance was only possible in 3.3×3.3×0.8mm devices.

Use is expected load and battery switching in tablets, smartphones, and notebooks.

ESD protection is typically to 6kV, and the device is halogen-free according to JEDEC JS709A and RoHS Directive 2011/65/EU compliant.

The Si8851EDB is the latest expansion to Vishay’s Micro Foot family, and is an example of its Gen III chips.

Samples and production quantities are available now, with 12 to 16 weeks lead time for large orders.

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Discretes Large IGBT switches power in welders

2013/12/05

11dec13FairchildIGBT 278 Fairchild has introduced a series of 1.2kV field-stop trench IGBTs, intended for hard-switching industrial applications such as solar inverters, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), and welders.

Switching is said to be fast, with Eoff losses under 30µJ/A.

V_CE(sat) is 1.8V at rated current, said to be far lower than the firm’s previous fast-switching IGBTs.

All devices contain a co-packed diode, and are 100% tested for clamped inductive switching at current levels of four times the rated current to guarantee safe operating area (SOA).

Packaging is TO247 with 20mm leads, compared with the larger TO264 previously used for similar devices by Fairchild, and ratings of 15A (FGH15T120SMD), 25A (FGH25T120SMD), and 40A (FGH40T120SMD) are available.

Max junction temperature is 175°C

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Multi-dog study points to canine brain's reward center

Dec. 4, 2013 — After capturing the first brain images of two alert, unrestrained dogs last year, researchers at Emory University have confirmed their methods and results by replicating them in an experiment involving 13 dogs.

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The research, published by the Public Library of Science One (PLOS One), showed that most of the dogs had a positive response in the caudate region of the brain when given a hand signal indicating they would receive a food treat, as compared to a different hand signal for "no treat."

"Our experiment last year was really a proof of concept, demonstrating that dogs could be trained to undergo successful functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI)," says the lead researcher Gregory Berns, director of Emory's Center for Neuropolicy. "Now we've shown that the initial study wasn't a fluke: Canine fMRI is reliable and can be done with minimal stress to the dogs. We have laid the foundation for exploring the neural biology and cognitive processes of man's best, and oldest, friend."

Co-authors of the paper include Andrew Brooks, a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Neuropolicy, and Mark Spivak, a dog trainer and the owner of Comprehensive Pet Therapy.

Both the initial experiment and the more recent one involved training the dogs to acclimatize to an fMRI machine. The task requires dogs to cooperatively enter the small enclosure of the fMRI scanner and remain completely motionless despite the noise and vibration of the machine.

Only those dogs that willingly cooperated were involved in the experiments. The canine subjects were given harmless fMRI brain scans while they watched a human giving hand signals that the dogs had been trained to understand. One signal indicated that the dog would receive a hot dog for a treat. The other hand signal meant that the dog would not receive a hot dog.

The most recent experiment involved the original two dogs, plus 11 additional ones, of varying breeds. Eight out of the 13 showed the positive caudate response for the hand signal indicating they were going to receive a hot dog.

The caudate sits above the brain stem in mammals and has the highest concentration of dopamine receptors, which are implicated in motivation and pleasure, among other neurological processes.

"We know that in humans, the caudate region is associated with decision-making, motivation and processing emotions," Berns says.

As a point of reference, the researchers compared the results to a similar experiment Berns had led 10 years previously involving humans, in which the subjects pressed a button when a light appeared, to get a squirt of fruit juice.

Eleven of 17 humans involved in that experiment showed a positive response in the caudate region that was similar to the positive response of the dogs. "Our findings suggest that the caudate region of the canine brain behaves similarly to the caudate of the human brain, under similar circumstances," Berns says.

Six of the dogs involved in the experiment had been specially bred and trained to assist disabled people as companion animals, and two of the dogs (including one of the service dogs) had worked as therapy dogs, used to help alleviate stress in people in hospitals or nursing homes. All of the service/therapy dogs showed a greater level of positive caudate activation for the hot dog signal, compared to the other dogs.

"We don't know if the service dogs and therapy dogs showed this difference because of genetics, or because of the environment in which they were raised, but we hope to find out in future experiments," Berns says. "This may be the first hint of how the brains of dogs with different temperaments and personalities differ."

He adds: "I don't think it was because they liked hot dogs more. I saw no evidence of that. None of the dogs turned down the hot dogs."

One limitation of the experiments is the small number of subjects and the selectivity of the dogs involved, since only certain dogs can be trained to do the experiments, Berns says.

"We're expanding our cohort to include more dogs and more breeds," Berns says. "As the dogs get more accustomed to the process, we can conduct more complicated experiments."

Plans call for comparing how the canine brain responds to hand signals coming from the dog's owner, a stranger and a computer. Another experiment already under way is looking at the neural response of dogs when they are exposed to scents of members of their households, both humans and other dogs, and unfamiliar humans and dogs.

"Ultimately, our goal is to map out canine cognitive processes," says Berns, who recently published a book entitled "How Dogs Love Us: A Neuroscientist and His Adopted Dog Decode the Canine Brain."

Even in an increasingly technical era, the role of dogs has not diminished, Berns says. In addition to being popular pets, he notes that dogs are important in the U.S. military, in search-and-rescue missions, as assistants for the disabled and as therapeutic stress relievers for hospital patients and others.

"Dogs have been a part of human society for longer than any other animal," Berns says. He cites a genetic analysis recently published in Science suggesting that the domestication of dogs goes back 18,000 to 32,000 years, preceding the development of agriculture some 10,000 years ago.

"Most neuroscience studies on animals are conducted to serve as models for human disease and brain functions," Berns says. "We're not studying canine cognition to serve as a model for humans, but what we learn about the dog brain may also help us understand more about how our own brains evolved."

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Crocodiles are cleverer than previously thought: Some crocodiles use lures to hunt their prey

Vladimir Dinets, a research assistant professor in the Department of Psychology, is the first to observe two crocodilian species -- muggers and American alligators -- using twigs and sticks to lure birds, particularly during nest-building time.

The research is published in the current edition of Ethology, Ecology and Evolution. Dinets' research is the first report of tool use by any reptiles, and also the first known case of predators timing the use of lures to a seasonal behavior of the prey -- nest-building.

Dinets first observed the behavior in 2007 when he spotted crocodiles lying in shallow water along the edge of a pond in India with small sticks or twigs positioned across their snouts. The behavior potentially fooled nest-building birds wading in the water for sticks into thinking the sticks were floating on the water. The crocodiles remained still for hours and if a bird neared the stick, they would lunge.

To see if the stick-displaying was a form of clever predation, Dinets and his colleagues performed systematic observations of the reptiles for one year at four sites in Louisiana, including two rookery and two nonrookery sites. A rookery is a bird breeding ground. The researchers observed a significant increase in alligators displaying sticks on their snouts from March to May, the time birds were building nests. Specifically, the reptiles in rookeries had sticks on their snouts during and after the nest-building season. At non-rookery sites, the reptiles used lures during the nest-building season.

"This study changes the way crocodiles have historically been viewed," said Dinets. "They are typically seen as lethargic, stupid and boring but now they are known to exhibit flexible multimodal signaling, advanced parental care and highly coordinated group hunting tactics."

The observations could mean the behavior is more widespread within the reptilian group and could also shed light on how crocodiles' extinct relatives -- dinosaurs -- behaved.

"Our research provides a surprising insight into previously unrecognized complexity of extinct reptile behavior," said Dinets. "These discoveries are interesting not just because they show how easy it is to underestimate the intelligence of even relatively familiar animals, but also because crocodilians are a sister taxon of dinosaurs and flying reptiles."

Dinets collaborated with J.C and J.D. Brueggen from the St. Augustine Alligator Farm Zoological Park in St. Augustine, Fla. More of his crocodile research can be found in his book "Dragon Songs."

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Business GaN-on-Si taking over LEDs

2013/12/05

The penetration of gallium nitride-on-silicon (GaN-on-Si) wafers into the LED market is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 69% from 2013 to 2020, by which time they will account for 40% of all GaN LEDs manufactured, according to a new report from IHS.

In 2013, 95% of GaN LEDs will be manufactured on sapphire wafers, while only 1% will be manufactured on silicon wafers. The growth in the manufacturing of GaN-on-Si LEDs between 2013 and 2020 will take market share from both sapphire and silicon carbide wafers.

“Manufacturing large ingots made from sapphire is difficult, whereas silicon wafers are available from 8 inches up to 12 inches and are generally cheaper and more abundant,” says Dkins Cho, senior analyst for lighting and LEDs at IHS. “There is a large pre-existing industry for silicon-based manufacturing that is leveraged to create economies of scale and reduce the cost of an LED.”

Repurposing manufacturing facilities to accommodate the shift toward GaN-on-Si LEDs is generally accepted to require minimal investment. Companies that previously manufactured CMOS semiconductors already own legacy 8-inch CMOS fabrication units that can be converted for LED production with a small modification. These companies already have in-house expertise and technology associated with silicon-based processes.

“Many of the CMOS semiconductor manufacturers already have excellent inspection tools, unlike traditional LED companies,” Cho says, “this could help increase their process yield through in-situ monitoring. However, it is unlikely the repurposing will happen overnight; instead we forecast a shift during the coming years.”

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New scheme uses shared visual cues to help people remember multiple passwords

The story sentences become the basis for password fragments that are randomly combined to create unique, strong passwords for multiple accounts. The scheme ensures that people remember these sentences by pairing them with photos, which serve as mnemonic devices, and by making sure that people either use or rehearse these sentences frequently enough to keep their memories fresh. These "naturally rehearsing passwords" require a bit more work for the user at the outset than existing password practices, acknowledged Jeremiah Blocki, a Ph.D. student in Carnegie Mellon's Computer Science Department.

"But if you can memorize nine stories, our system can generate distinct passwords for 126 accounts," Blocki said. By memorizing more stories, users can create even more passwords or can make their passwords even more secure. And by reusing and recombining those stories for each password, people naturally rehearse them more often and thus remember them better.

Blocki will present a research paper on naturally rehearsing passwords on Dec. 5 at ASIACRYPT 2013, a scientific conference on cryptology in Bangalore, India.

Blocki and his collaborators -- Manuel Blum, professor of computer science, and Anupam Datta, associate professor of computer science and electrical and computer engineering -- say the scheme addresses a major usability and security problem posed by the Internet's reliance on passwords. Even casual Internet users accumulate so many passwords that they are difficult or impossible to remember. As a result, too many people simply use the same password over and over, or write down their passwords or use other shortcuts that leave their accounts vulnerable to attackers.

Rather than require websites to revise password practices, the researchers have created an application that helps prompt the memory of users. It is in the process of being implemented as a mobile app as part of an undergraduate research project.

Blum said the researchers based their approach on cognitive research on the relationship between memory retention and the frequency at which those memories are rehearsed. They also drew inspiration from "Moonwalking with Einstein," a 2011 bestseller in which author Joshua Foer recounts his experiences in the world of competitive memorization. In particular, they borrowed the concept of the Person-Action-Object, or PAO, System, in which long sequences of numbers or letters are memorized by associating them with images.

In their scheme, a user initially selects a photo of a person and a photo of an evocative scene; the computer then randomly selects a photo of an object and a photo of an action. With those photos, the user then creates a PAO story that is as vivid and unusual as possible. For instance, photos of President Bill Clinton, a piranha and someone kissing might result in a story, "Bill Clinton kissing a piranha," or "President smooches a fish." By taking the first letter from each word, or the first three letters from the first two words, the user could generate part of a password.

For each account, the application would randomly assign several such photo combinations and the user would create a password using the letters associated with each photo. During subsequent logons, the application would provide the photos as a memory prompt; even if the user forgets the password, he can reconstruct the password by looking at the photos and recalling the associated story.

Though the photos could be public and unprotected, the exact stories associated with each and the ways they are translated into passwords would be known only to the user. Datta said even if an attacker discovered one complete password, it wouldn't compromise any other passwords.

The application would keep track of the time intervals between uses of each photo/story pair. Blocki said cognitive research suggests that as memories are created, a person may initially need to rehearse the story every day or two; over time, the intervals can grow much longer. If a person didn't see a photo compilation and rehearse the associated story within the appropriate interval, the application would prompt the person to rehearse it. Over time, however, as the memory becomes consolidated, normal password use likely will give users all of the rehearsal time necessary, he added. Blocki said users might have as few as nine photo/story pairs, though he personally has opted to use 43 stories to maintain greater security.

"The most annoying thing about using the system isn't remembering the stories, but the password restrictions of some sites," said Blocki, who noted that some sites, for instance, require use of numbers, figures or capital letters in passwords, or have maximum character counts.

"In those cases, I just make a note to, for instance, add a '1' to the password," he said. Writing down password information normally is a bad practice, but Blocki said these notes aren't a problem with naturally rehearsing passwords. "The security is inherent in the passwords themselves," he explained, "and the notes don't affect that." This research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

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Sea-level rise to drive coastal flooding, regardless of change in cyclone activity

Writing in the current special issue of Nature dedicated to coastal regions, geoscientist Woodruff, with co-authors Jennifer Irish of Virginia Tech University and Suzana Camargo of Columbia University, say, "Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones."

Sea level rise and its potential to dramatically change the coastal landscape through shoreline erosion and barrier island degradation, for example, is an under-appreciated and understudied factor that could lead to catastrophic changes in flood risk associated with tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic, they say.

Woodruff adds, "There is general agreement that while globally, tropical cyclones will decline in frequency, their strength will be more intense. However, there is less consensus on the magnitude of these changes, and it remains unclear how closely individual regions of tropical cyclone activity will follow global trends."

Despite these uncertainties, the UMass Amherst geoscientist notes, the intensity and frequency of flooding by tropical cyclones will increase significantly due to accelerated sea level rise. Further, the geologic record provides clear examples for the importance of accelerated sea level rise in initiating significant changes in shoreline behavior.

"The era of relatively moderate sea level rise that most coastlines have experienced during the past few millennia is over, and shorelines are now beginning to adjust to a new boundary condition that in most cases serves to accelerate rates of shoreline retreat," he says.

The authors focus on three physical factors they say should be considered together to understand future coastal flooding from hurricanes: Tropical cyclone climatology, relative sea level rise and shoreline change. "Modes of climate variability explain 30 to 45 percent of the variance of tropical cyclone activity within the instrumental historical record. This percentage is far less, however, when considering only storms that make landfall," they point out.

By contrast, "a future rise in sea level is far more certain, particularly along the coastlines most prone to tropical cyclone disruption. For example, a rise in sea level of 1 meter for the New York City region would result in the present-day 100-year flood events occurring every 3 to 20 years. Most engineered coastlines are not designed for this increase in extreme flood frequency, and the dominance of sea-level rise and landscape dynamics on impacts by landfalling tropical cyclones must be acknowledged for effective planning and management of our future coastlines," Woodruff and colleagues write.

They add that "population centers most at risk of tropical cyclone impacts are mainly located along dynamic and subsiding sedimentary coasts that will serve to further enhance the impact of future tropical cyclone floods." People can soften such impacts "partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments," and by reducing human-caused land subsidence along many of the world's most populated coastlines due to the extraction of groundwater, oil and gas.

Woodruff and colleagues present prehistoric, instrumental and modeling evidence supporting the dominance of sea level rise on extreme flooding associated with tropical cyclones and the compounding influences of resulting shoreline change on the flood intensity by these events. They say that paleoreconstructions from barrier beach systems and accompanying marshes indicate that "many if these coastal environments have remained remarkably stable over the last few millennia, despite episodic and extreme disruption by tropical cyclones."

In stark contrast, these landforms were either non-existent or quickly washed over by storms, during pre-historic times of rapid sea level rise similar to those projected for the end of this century, in 2100. The authors point out, "It is therefore prudent to expect a decrease in the resilience of these low-lying coastlines from tropical cyclone impacts when enhanced by elevated rates of sea level rise."

Finally, they discuss management strategies in the context of "an almost certain increase in tropical cyclone flood frequency," as well as the need for accurate assessments of the disturbance and resilience of coastal systems to episodic flooding by tropical cyclones under increased rates of sea level rise.

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